Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 3.796667 4.169667 4.609205 5.179866 5.926064 6.911669 8.405352
2024-12-29 3.387107 3.860800 4.471162 5.364064 6.749601 9.118572 14.842842
2025-01-05 3.019855 3.496760 4.135876 5.125827 6.811202 10.228760 23.561569
2025-01-12 2.755317 3.219713 3.856695 4.878830 6.729479 11.002982 41.748841
2025-01-19 2.584907 3.046251 3.693015 4.767078 6.838810 12.408235 NaN
2025-01-26 2.516448 3.002993 3.707909 4.943386 7.596842 17.422793 NaN
2025-02-02 2.483807 3.004515 3.786878 5.247181 8.856619 34.702307 NaN
2025-02-09 2.403558 2.928098 3.731600 5.284802 9.471870 80.361618 NaN
2025-02-16 2.338480 2.868272 3.695235 5.351076 10.259121 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 2.233563 2.741182 3.534821 5.128854 9.895152 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 2.178678 2.686977 3.492663 5.154362 10.526283 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 2.122600 2.627363 3.435693 5.136960 10.998573 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.045085 2.533597 3.317813 4.976385 10.782515 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.019902 2.520025 3.339113 5.143630 12.436440 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 1.945328 2.424867 3.208275 4.925236 11.730774 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 1.873970 2.332395 3.078083 4.697894 10.913525 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.823730 2.271590 3.001677 4.594699 10.807052 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.811954 2.270909 3.032508 4.757411 12.537185 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.813211 2.290832 3.102223 5.036545 16.132679 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.786188 2.263472 3.081499 5.071004 17.830846 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.763442 2.242075 3.070535 5.131647 20.393874 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.715170 2.176996 2.972333 4.928009 18.339980 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.692223 2.153085 2.952509 4.951427 20.279093 NaN NaN